Formerly Lettters From A Young American

Wednesday, February 15, 2012

Santorum "Crushing"

In new results released two days ago, PPP, the polling company who predicted Santorum's Trifecta Sweep last week, has Santorum literally brutalizing Romney in his home state of Michigan.

Rick Santorum's taken a large lead in Michigan's upcoming Republican primary. He's at 39% to 24% for Mitt Romney, 12% for Ron Paul, and 11% for Newt Gingrich.
 PPP attributes his uptick in popularity to two things: a voting base increasingly discontented with Gingrich, and a massive favorability rating. 67 percent of voters in Michigan view Santorum favorably, while only 23 percent view him unfavorably.

This only becomes a big deal if you know favorability ratings for the other candidates: Gingrich (38/47), Romney (49/39), and Paul (32/51). That's a big problem for Romney. If 40 percent of people don't like you, it's hard to build a consensus.

Also part of Santorum's lead is the different factions who have now lined up behind him, despite his loss of the CPAC straw poll to Romney over the weekend.


Santorum's winning an outright majority of the Tea Party vote with 53% to 22% for Romney and 10% for Gingrich. He comes close to one with Evangelicals as well at 48% to 20% for Romney and 12% for Gingrich. And he cracks the 50% line with voters identifying as 'very conservative' at 51% to 20% for Romney and 10% for Gingrich.


PPP's Michigan poll isn't the only one Santorum is leading in. A Quinnipiac University poll has him up 7 points in Ohio, a Super Tuesday state, and several polls have him leading nationally.

One of the things that I think PPP overlooked in their analysis, but included in ther survey, is the fact that Romney has no home turf advantage. Only 26 percent of Michiganders (didn't know that was a word, PPP) think Romney is one of them. 62 don't.

An amusing sidenote from Yahoo!'s The Signal:

Rick Santorum has slipped ahead of the Mitt Romney in the polls, marking an ignominious milestone in the Republican nomination: Since last summer, when Romney was at the top of the early polls, the lead has switched nine times. In order, it's gone to Rick Perry, Romney, Herman Cain, Romney, Gingrich, Romney, Gingrich, Romney, and Santorum, who now leads the Real Clear Politics' aggregated trend with 30.2 percent to Romney's 28.6 percent. Notice a pattern?
 Is this just another bump? If so, it might be the last one. Other bumps that happened, including Perry and Cain, involved no delegates. Gingrich and later Romney bumps involved only a few. Santorum is peaking like the New York Giants. With Super Tuesday looming, he stands to reap massive rewards, even if this is just a post Trifecta Sweep bump. If he can keep it going for just three weeks (or for three long weeks, seeing as how nuts the election cycle has been), he could take Super Tuesday by storm, especially if he can put Romney's scalp in Michigan in his belt.

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